Let's Have California Style Energy Everywhere!

Democratic Party Rule Could Take California-Style Energy Shortages Nationwide

H. Sterling Burnett
H. Sterling Burnett
 
August 30, 2020 Updated: August 30, 2020

Commentary

Coming to a city and state near you: California style energy shortages and blackouts. At least that will be the case if Democrats sweep the White House and both houses of Congress in November and keep their campaign promises to impose the type of zero carbon dioxide emissions green energy mandates and fossil fuel restrictions on the nation that California has forced upon its residents.

Californians are suffering self-inflicted harm as power blackouts occur throughout the Golden State. The cause of the blackouts is the ever-growing spate of restrictions on the use of fossil fuels to generate electric power in the state, leaving residents dependent on government favored, intermittent renewable power sources.

In 2018, California enacted a law requiring 50 percent of the electricity delivered in the state come from renewable sources by 2025, 60 percent by 2030, and that all the electricity in the state come from sources emitting no carbon dioxide during generation by 2050.

The result was lampooned by the news satire site The Sacramento Brie, in a hilarious article, “Gov. Newsom: California successfully tests power blackouts as state prepares for 2025,” filled with made-up but basically accurate quotes.

With good humor, a wink, and a nod—the Brie article “quotes” Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) saying, “‘These blackouts, which occurred without prior warning or time for preparation between 3 p.m. and 10 p.m., demonstrate exactly the kind of green energy capability California government has been shooting for,’ Newsom said at a meeting of energy professionals on Sunday.”

“[R]esidents, communities and other governmental organizations did not receive sufficient warning that these de-energizations would occur, which is exactly what we expect to happen — but on a much larger scale—as the state moves toward 100 percent renewable energy in 2045,” the Brie imagines Newsom saying.

Although these quotes are entirely fictional, they do accurately describe the situation in California. In the past few weeks, dozens of news outlets carried stories outlining how California’s green energy policies have resulted in repeated failures of the power supply in recent years.

For instance, an article in the California Globe, “California’s Electric Grid Is Near Collapse,” explicitly links the state’s repeated blackouts to its embrace of renewable energy sources to the exclusion of historically reliable and affordable electricity generated by fossil fuels. The author wrote, “California’s bet on renewables and shunning of natural gas and nuclear power, is directly responsible for the state’s blackouts and high electricity prices.”

The architects of the policies that have led to this power failure, former California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and present Gov. Newsom, blamed the state’s common people, the hoi polloi, for the blackouts, admonishing them in multiple tweets to turn out their lights and turn up their thermostats. You read that right. According to the elitist politicians of California, the answer to the state’s politically induced energy crisis is for people to swelter in the dark amidst a raging heat wave.

At a press event, in a rare honest moment, Newsom and other California officials finally admitted the state’s renewable power diktats were responsible for the blackouts across the state.

“California Gov. Gavin Newsom said [on August 17] the state had to ‘sober up’ about the fact that renewable energy sources had failed to provide enough power for the state at peak demand, and needed ‘backup’ and ‘insurance’ from other sources,” writes Breitbart News. Newsom went on to admit that the critical reason for the blackouts was California’s over-reliance on renewable power sources.

But then Newsom lapsed back into typical political obfuscation, saying “We failed to predict and plan these shortages.”

Who is this “we” Newsom refers to? Analysts from think tanks in California (Reason, Pacific Research Institute, and the Independent Institute) to Washington, D.C. (the Competitive Enterprise Institute) and in between (including my own think tank, The Heartland Institute in Illinois) have warned for years that California’s policies would result in dangerous power shortages.

And, in an ironic example of too little, too late, on June 11, California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) admitted that approving the use of up to 450 megawatts of diesel generators to fill-in when renewable power sources failed to supply sufficient energy wasn’t nearly enough.

As more and more green energy infrastructure is added to the grid, the gap between power demand and what is available on any particular day, will continue to increase.

Sadly, California could have easily avoided these problems. If only bureaucrats had allowed just a single modern large coal fueled power plant to remain open, or allowed new natural gas plants to be built. Alas, California politicos cared more about the approbation of their fringe radical environmental constituents, than the well-being of most Californians.

I can only hope California style energy policies, which is what the Democratic Party is supporting, aren’t ushered in as a result of the November election.

Sterling Burnett, Ph.D. (hburnett@heartland.org) is a senior fellow on energy and the environment at The Heartland Institute, a nonpartisan, nonprofit research center headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

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Comment by Willem Post on September 5, 2020 at 10:58am

On August 19, 2020 (shortly after the rolling blackouts of August 14 and 15) the California ISO sent a letter to Governor Newsom clearly identifying that inadequate firm generation capacity was responsible for these rolling blackouts.

The letter also noted that the CPUC is responsible for purchasing firm capacity needed to meet electrical demand.

The CPUC has now issued a directive to the California utilities requiring that an additional 3,300 MW of firm capacity be procured by 2021 which is an acceleration by 3 years versus the prior timetable for this additional firm capacity of 2023.

The water quality control board was scheduled to shut down 4 additional coastal natural gas plants in August 2020, because of their use of ocean cooling. That plan was dropped at their hearing, because of the rolling blackouts.

Thus only 15 of 19 coastal natural gas plants have been shutdown. These idiotic shutdowns are based on

1) Likely "environmental damage of ocean cooling" and

2) Reducing the number of fossil plants on the books to make the states renewable progress look better for political purposes.

California, because of its absurd push for unreliable renewable energy, has to obtain its firm generation capacity needs by using the spot energy market, as was the case in the energy crisis and rolling blackouts of 2001.

During the August 2020 rolling blackouts, the western US region was in a heat wave.

There was not sufficient spot market energy available to California meet demand.

In 2019, California had to import 28% of its total energy from other state’s which is by far the most of any state in the nation.

Use of unreliable renewables is completely responsible for the most recent rolling blackouts, clearly demonstrating additional firm capacity is required to reliably serve demand, because of unreliable wind and solar being inadequate at the proper time.

Electricity rates in California have increased 60% more than average US electricity rates in the since 2009 These increases were created by its mandated renewable energy policies.

California's push for unreliable renewables is driven by its meaningless claim of “fighting climate change” The state's emissions reductions amount to a few tenths of a percent of present global emissions.

Future annual global emissions, primarily by the world's developing nations, are forecast to increase by billions of metric tons.

California hypes its unreliable solar and wind renewables, but the reality is, after nearly 15 years of government-mandated use of unreliable renewables, and many tens of billions of dollars in subsidies, they provided only 22% of the state's electricity in 2019, whereas natural gas provided over 34% of the state’s electricity.

Furthermore, EIA data shows electricity only represents about 20% of the state's total energy use with fossil fuels providing about 80%. Unreliable wind and solar provide only about 6.4% of the state's total energy.

California’s energy and emissions policy are in need of a massive overhaul with the present schemes driven by nothing but the “blithering idiocy” of the state's politically contrived climate alarmist and energy policy propaganda. That overhaul cannot be implemented by the same people

Comment by Willem Post on September 4, 2020 at 5:30am

Wind and solar are heavily subsidized, coddled, expensive, unreliable CRIPPLES.

They need all sorts of support systems to make them useful for reliable electricity service, 24/7/365

The Bill Gates plan is to use a support system of NUCLEAR plants, WITH STORAGE, to make unreliable, variable/intermittent, expensive, wind and solar electricity useful to the grid.

Bill Gates would be OK with placing thousands of 3 to 4 MW, 500-ft tall wind turbines on NE ridge lines (disturbing millions of people and wild life), and in off-shore locations, and plastering about 200,000 NE acres with solar panels.

The life of wind turbines is about 15 to 20 years, of solar panels about 25 years.

The alternative would be battery systems (life about 15 years), but New England would need about 8 to 10 TWh of storage to cover frequently occurring, 5-7 day wind/solar lulls, and seasonal variations.

Turnkey capital cost = 9 billion kWh x $500/kWh (large, engineered-systems) = $4.5 TRILLION, or $1.8 TRILLION, if $200/kWh, at a future date

WALL STREET WILL LOOOOOVE BILL GATES.

DECADES OF TAX SHELTER SELLING AND MANAGEMENT

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-vagaries-of-solar-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cost-shifting-is-the-na...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-demand-and-low-win...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/large-scale-solar-plant...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-res...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/analysis-of-a-6-day-lul...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/ne-wind-and-solar-elect...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/nuclear-a-more-rational...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-conditio...

Comment by Willem Post on August 31, 2020 at 1:19pm

Re promoters in Vermont and other states have been wanting to emulate Calizuela, the basket-case state.

The more blackouts, the better, to demonstrate the results of CA's ridiculous policies.

Huge unemployment

High poverty level.

Huge population of all-sorts-of illegals, that CA wants to transform into Democrat votes, to "cement" forever majorities.

Coercive socialism is alive and "well" in CA.

"ISO-New England forecasts that between a sixth and a third of all the fossil fuel power plants in New England could retire in the next decade. As offshore wind comes online, dirty power plants will switch off, for good."

Horse Manure. CALIZUELA been there, done that, with disastrous results.

There were not enough generating plants to serve demand after wind and solar went AWOL

The result: Rolling blackouts.

Rolling Blackouts in California a Harbinger for New England

 

CAISO is the California Independent Systems Operator. Here’s their graph of renewables generation from the CAISO site:

 

 

Figure 1. Total generation by each type of renewables in California, August 14, 2020

 

The total of geothermal, biomass, biogas, small hydro, and wind is diddlysquat

Wind died around midday

Solar started to go to sleep around 6 pm in the evening.

Just about that time rolling blackouts started.

 

Here is a CAISO chart, showing the net demand,

Blue, traditionals + Green, renewables = Demand

Green is just a sliver at 7 pm, when peak demand occurs, and remains a sliver for until 8 am the next day, when solar starts to build up. See figure 2.

 

See figure 3 of the next day in URL.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/15/in-caiso-emergency-break-glass/

  

 

Figure 2. Net demand for electricity in California, split out by the type of generation of the electricity

 

California Rolling Blackouts Were Predicted

 

California has had rolling blackouts 3 times in 4 days, and likely will have more. The main problem is California’s irrational shift from natural gas.

 

About 9,000 MW of gas turbine plants, enough to power 6.8 million homes, have been shut down over the past 5 years, as the state increasingly turned to unreliable renewables. That leaves fewer options, after the sun sets and solar production decreases in the later afternoon, and the wind is not blowing as well.

 

Normally, California imports sufficient electricity from neighboring states, when its in-state generation is insufficient. But the sprawling heat wave blanketing the US southwest is pushing all power plants to near 100% capacity throughout the region.

 

California energy systems engineers have been warning this would happen for some years, so there should be no surprise it actually does happen. Let us hope New England RE dreamers will not emulate California’s foolishness.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worst-heat-70-years-threatens-090000...

 

CAISO brags about how they “maintain reliability while maximizing clean energy sources”

 

California Unwisely Shutting Down 9,000 MW of Clean-Burning Gas Plants

 

California utilities were unwisely ordered by RE bureaucrats to shut down these plants, but they should have kept them for standby, i.e., staffed, maintained, fueled, ready to serve at a moment’s notice, in case of unreliable wind and solar not performing.

 

Batteries: Some RE bureaucrats say the rolling blackouts likely would not have happened, or would be less severe, if we had built out the planned battery systems.

 

The turnkey capital cost of 9,000 MW of batteries with a 4-hour charge is 36000 MWh x 1000 x $500/kWh = $18 billion. The batteries would need to be recharged overnight to be available the next day. Such battery systems have a 15 to 20% loss on an HV ac to HV ac basis. They last about 15 years. Where would that electricity, including losses, come from, if unreliable wind and solar were minimal?

 

Here’s the bottom line: If you add 10,000 MW of solar supply to your grid, as shown in Figure 2, you must have available about 10,000 MW of traditional fossil supply to cover times when unreliable renewables simply don’t cut it.

 

By blatantly ignoring that fact, allows RE dreamers to claim “renewables are ready for the market”.

Unreliable renewables are absolutely not ready “for the market”, without huge ongoing subsidies and full fossil backup, and in a “pinch”, they are simply not up to the job.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cost-shifting-is-the-na...

 

All of this is the total and complete fault of the Democrats, who have run California since forever, aided by huge influxes of mostly Hispanic immigrants, who likely vote Democrat.

A MUCH BETTER APPROACH

The gas fired turbine plants, which usually operate near 60% efficiency, need to be staffed, fueled, kept in good order, to start at a moment's notice, in case wind and solar are near zero, which happens AT RANDOM throughout the year. Such lulls may last 5 to 7 days.

Comment by arthur qwenk on August 30, 2020 at 1:01pm

"Sadly, California could have easily avoided these problems".

SO CAN MAINE ad NEW ENGLAND!

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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