EVs and Coal

I’ve been wondering ……….

Could the push for EV mandates be fomented by the coal companies?
Don’t laugh yet.
Hear me out.

As I’ve discussed in the past, the concept of Global Warming was a creation of the Nuclear Power Industry. It was an effort, started in the 1970s, to jumpstart stalled nuclear plant construction.

Today, coal use for power generation has reached a 30-year low. Is the Coal Industry, similarly, attempting to create an environment that will boost usage?

Electric Vehicles (plug in – not hybrid) have a niche place in society.

They are good for around town trips and daily commutes in moderate climates.

They are a play thing for the well to do, and for people whose life requires virtue signaling.

A U.S. light vehicle fleet with total EVs accounting for 1% – 1.25% can be accommodated without a need for increased power generation or transmission grid buildouts.

Currently the EV share is about 0.66%.

With present EV sales accounting for 2.5% – 5% of total light vehicle sales per year, power generation requirements are stable for another 25 – 40 years.

Note: I am examining only EV usage effects.

Other mandates such as changes from gas to electric for heating, cooking, etc. are not considered here.

In addition there is no attempt to address increased cost from higher rates of consumption, carbon sequestration, etc.

Question – So what would happen, if EV ownership and usage increased dramatically?

 Say, that there was a mandate that EV sales be:

 2026 – 35% of new car sales
 2028 – 51% of new car sales
 2030 – 68% of new car sales
 2035 – 100% of new car sales

 This is the recently passed California Law and Vermont.

Virginia has already signed on, and 17 more states are very seriously considering adopting the mandate.

Answer – ADDITIONAL power generation systems, and grid construction/expansion/reinforcement, would need to be IMMEDIATELY started

How will this demand be met?

Nuclear would do the trick.

But the lag time to build new and reopen/refurbish closed plants is prohibitive.

Besides it is despised by the Green Crowd.

Modular nuclear could help, if deployed in single site, multiple unit, parallel array configurations.

Unreliable wind and solar are out of the picture.

As I have discussed in the past, there is no Moore’s Law for wind and solar.

The Shockley–Queisser and Betz limits are realities of physics.

Practical green energy, in commercial quantities, is an endeavor for the future, and requires new grid infrastructure and storage solutions.

That leaves fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal.

Over the last 30 years, as the price of gas decreased (due to improved production and transport systems), the use of coal decreased.

At present, about 22% of U.S. electricity is generated from coal.

With the administration’s efforts to hamstring present and future gas production, coal is projected to increase a total of about 27% of power generation. This represents the upper bounds for the coal industry.

So, if you are the Coal Industry, and if you can’t increase your share of the pie, and you know that there is no alternative source, how do you increase revenue?

You make the pie bigger – the bigger the better.

How do you do this? You find ways to substitute the use of electricity for other energy sources in everyday life.

A conspiracy theory? Yes. 
Improbable? May be

But I saw what the Nuclear Power Industry attempted.

Just because it failed to revive nuclear plant construction, does not mean that an agenda like this wouldn’t be attempted to increase coal use.