Electric Demand Down, Natural Gas Prices Down. Why are Electric Prices Up?
February 12, 2025 ISO-NE
Market monitor: Fall energy costs rose despite lower demand
Increased emissions costs and supply limitations drove higher year-over-year wholesale electricity costs in the fall of 2024, according to the latest quarterly report from ISO New England’s Internal Market Monitor (IMM).
The Fall 2024 Quarterly Markets Report, which covers the period from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30, 2024, presents an assessment of each of the region’s wholesale electricity markets, based on market data, performance criteria, and independent studies.
Key findings include:
- The total estimated wholesale market cost of electricity for fall 2024 was $1.47 billion, up 8% compared to fall 2023.
- Real-time energy prices averaged $35.72 per megawatt hour (MWh), up 14% from fall 2023. Day-ahead energy prices were up 12% year over year, averaging $35.91/MWh.
- Energy costs climbed 8% to $1.08 billion. The increase came despite lower natural gas prices and lower demand relative to fall 2023. It was attributed to higher carbon emissions costs and reduced supply from imports and nuclear resources.
- Capacity costs totaled $359 million, up 38% from the previous fall. The increase was attributed to higher clearing prices in the 15th Forward Capacity Auction (FCA 15) compared to FCA 14.
The report includes these additional insights on operating conditions and the resource mix:
- The cost of carbon emissions allowances through the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative was up 53% compared to fall 2023, driving production costs higher for natural gas and other fossil fuel resources.
- Increasing emissions costs more than offset lower natural gas prices during the quarter. The average price of natural gas declined 13% year-over-year, to $1.95 per million British thermal units.
- Net imports fell to their lowest level in over a decade. Imports represented 4% of New England’s net energy for load in fall 2024, compared to 11% in fall 2023. The drop was attributed to dry conditions limiting the output of hydro resources in Québec, as well as a nuclear generator outage in New Brunswick. While New England is historically a net importer of electricity, it was a net exporter to Canada in fall 2024.
- Dry conditions also affected hydro resources within New England. Their output decreased approximately 40% relative to fall 2023.
- The fall was unusually sunny, leading to greater contributions from the region’s growing inventory of solar resources. Output from grid-connected solar resources increased 25% from the previous fall, exceeding the share of energy supply from net imports. Estimated output from behind-the-meter solar grew by 28% compared to the previous fall.
- With relatively mild weather and contributions from BTM solar, fall demand reached its lowest level in at least 24 years, with hourly loads averaging 12,000 MW.
Views: 11
Comment
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Comment by Willem Post on February 14, 2025 at 7:35am
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Hydro plants with large reservoirs, as in Norway and Quebec, are less dependent on on the weather, whereas wind and solar are 100% dependent on the weather, and nuclear and fossil are TOTALLY independent of the weather.
We should take the subsidies away from wind and solar, because they screw up the stability of the grid, but also various support services from the tra generators to even exist on the grid.
ISO-NE gives financial preference to these wind and solar cripples, 24/7/365
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Comment by Dan McKay on February 14, 2025 at 6:07am
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One reason for the higher energy prices was reduced supply from low-cost, base
load energy supply, such as nuclear generation, net imports, and hydro.
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The spread between the average day-ahead electricity price and average estimated gas and CO2 emissions cost was $10.66/MWh in Fall 2024,
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Natural gas-fired generation continued to provide the largest share of energy in Fall 2024, supplying 61% of the region’s energy on average. This is the highest share for natural gas-fired generation in the study period; the increased reliance on gas results from a reduction in the share of energy provided by nuclear generation and net imports. The reduction in nuclear energy supply resulted from both planned and unplanned outages of nuclear generators throughout this season. Net imports supplied only 4% of the region’s energy on average in Fall 2024, the lowest share for net imports over the study period. Energy supply from hydro resources decreased by approximately 40% relative to the prior fall season, as a result of extended drought conditions in the region.
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law
Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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