Analyzing Maine's Departure From ISO-NE

This data is from the Maine PUC 2021 Annual Report to the Legislature:

 "Electricity use by Maine consumers is currently about 12 million megawatt hours (MWh) per year, with a peak demand of about 2,000 MW. The total nameplate generation capacity of in-state plants is in the range of 4,500 MW. These plants operate in response to the ISO New England’s dispatch instructions which at times may require them to operate at full output and at others, to not operate at all." 
    From the data, Maine's Average Hourly Demand is:  12,000,000(Maine's Annual Electricity Use) divided by 8760 ( hours in a year) = 1370 Megawatts per Hour.
 
    Maine has wind generation at about 1100 megawatt nameplate capacity= An annual average of 330 Megawatts per hour at 30% CF
 
    Maine has solar generation at about 62.7 Megawatt per hour at CF , With 324.2 Megawatts per hour at CF in queue ( Central Maine Power Data & Versant Data)
 
    Two points worth noting, 1. Neither wind nor solar is available for on-call generation
                                            2. Most wind and large solar projects in Maine have Power Purchase Agreements(PPA) that prompts them to offer bids that                                                        guarantee their entry into the market. This is their argument for lowering wholesale prices, although their power                                                                      purchase agreement price bumped up to retail prices still show up on customer bills from the utility involved in the PPA .                                                          Both CMP and Versant have such arrangements per order of the Maine Legislature.
    Nevertheless, the erratic power of wind and solar is in the grid. For this analysis, their output will be ignored so wind nameplate capacity of 1100 megawatts and solar nameplate capacity of 447.8 Megawatts ( 62.7 megawatts divided by 0.14 CF )  This is a  total of 1547.7 and drops generation from 4500 megawatts (PUC Number from Above) to 2952.3 Megawatts of In-State Generation.
   For this analysis, Maine generation of Natural Gas-Fired plants will also be ignored  1741 Megawatts (EIA Data)
 2952.3 minus 1741= 1211.3 megawatts = In-State Generation Without Wind, Solar or Natural Gas-Fired Plants 
 
  Now the analysed generation  of   1211.3 Megawatts falls short of the peak hourly demand of 2000 Megawatts. It even falls short of the Average Hourly Demand of 1370 Megawatts
 
Consider this potential scenario:
     Maine has an interconnection with New Brunswick with an import capacity of 1000 Megawatts and export capacity of  400 Megawatts
     The flow of electricity, hence the deliverable megawatts constantly change from Maine actually exporting to New Brunswick to New Brunswick importing to Maine( This flow is currently arranged by ISO-NE using their algorithms )
     New Brunswick Energy Marketing Corporation has provided 33% of the standard offer for the past five years to CMP customers and up to 100% to Versant customers 
   This imported power from New Brunswick could be a boost to Maine's electric needs, but, right now, ISO-NE controls the flows.
   Assuming Maine can import an average 158.7 megawatts from New Brunswick, the total in-state generation plus import minus wind,solar and natural gas plants would equal average daily demand of 1370 Megawatts. 789 Megawatts from New Brunswick would cover Maine's peak hour demand of 2000 Megawatts
 
This, of course , would be too close for comfort. Maine needs additional clean, reliable power
Enter NECEC,1200 Megawatts of firm power that immediately would tip the scales to Maine's true electricity independence.from fossil fuels and the influence of ISO-NE procedures that favor the big consumers to our south.
Could Maine depart from ISO-NE and negotiate directly with New Brunswick?  Could Maine inquire about the possibility of acquiring NECEC generation?
Could Maine purchase the 865 Megawatt Wyman Station in Yarmouth and operate it as a peaking plant at the few instances such conditions come up? 
One other point worth mentioning is the difference in annual electricity production  from in-state natural gas plants. In 2019, a year when ISO-NE wholesale market prices averaged around $22 per megawatt hour paid to generators  to 2021, when prices averaged $46 per megawatt hour.( More than twice the price given generators) 
  
 Maine's Largest 3 Natural Gas Plants                                             2019 Prices Paid at $22                                    2021 Prices Paid at $46                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
   Westbrook Energy Center 564 Megawatt natural gas plant:                       109 MW per Hour                                                  241 MW per Hour 
   Rumford Power  275 Megawatt natural gas plant                                           7 MW per Hour                                                    87 MW per Hour
   Independence Station, Veazie                                                                        31 MW per Hour                                                   61 MW per Hour

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Comment by Dan McKay on November 20, 2022 at 1:31pm

Electricity data browser - List of plants for wind, Maine, all sect...

This EIA site will give actual production numbers per wind project. Click on the project name for data

Comment by arthur qwenk on November 20, 2022 at 1:25pm

Where is the actual output capacity (not Nameplate Farce Capacity) posted online please?

Posting This would be a service to many. It is usually hidden, but is public data and should not be hidden.

Please show the NAMEPLATE Generation Capacity versus Actual produced  per project in Maine, annually , monthly.  .. THERE is no BASELOAD capacity for wind of course. Nameplate does not translate into actual recorded percentage of Nameplate  on an annual or monthly basis , which is 17 to 30 percent usually if averaged I believe  (varies per project).

Please show actual percentage generation monthly and annually versus NAMEPLATE (FARCE CAPACITY) in Maine at present .  This data used to be available by the generators, is it still>? Do you  have it?  It is  usually  17-37 percent based on the project locations I believe, and is non-Dispatchable..

Where is  actual per project generation   available presently? Who reports it to whom?

U.S. Sen Angus King

THE UNTOLD STORY OF RECORD HILL WIND

The Untold Story of Record Hill Wind, continued

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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