Comment

Comment by Long Islander on November 25, 2023 at 6:03pm

Willem, I believe an investment in the S&P 500 three years ago would have grown by about 8% annually, without dividends. If your savings are at all typical, it would seem that the heat pump advocates have some explaining to do.

Comment by Willem Post on November 25, 2023 at 12:26pm

I have three heat pumps, $24000 less 2400 rebate.

I use them when temps are 20F or higher on normal days, 15F or higher on sunny days, like today

Annual savings for each of the past three years about $200

Annual CO2 savings are minimal 

But, I still have my very efficient old system with a $350 service contract, excluding parts

I have to amortize the capital cost of two systems, which is at least $3000/y

I very strongly advise against having HPs

Comment by Dan McKay on November 25, 2023 at 8:14am

Knowing your independent lifestyle, Penny, I'm sure you will have no problem weathering a blackout. 

Comment by Penny Gray on November 25, 2023 at 7:20am

Three degrees this morning up here in northern Maine.  Do electric heat pumps work in extreme cold and without electricity?

Comment by Willem Post on November 24, 2023 at 2:53pm

APPENDIX 1

Floating Offshore Wind Systems in the Impoverished State of Maine

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/floating-offshore-wind...

Offshore Wind Capacity Placed on Operation in 2021

World: During 2021, worldwide offshore wind capacity placed in operation was 17,398 MW, of which China 13,790 MW, and the rest of the world 3,608 MW, of which UK 1,855 MW; Vietnam 643 MW; Denmark 604 MW; Netherlands 402 MW; Taiwan 109 MW

Of the 17,398 MW, just 57.1 MW was floating, about 1/3%

At end of 2021, 50,623 MW was in operation, of which just 123.4 MW was floating, about 1/4%

https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/offshore-wind-market-repo...

NOTE: Despite the meager floating offshore MW in the world, pro-wind politicians, bureaucrats, etc., aided and abetted by the lapdog Media, in the impoverished State of Maine, continue to fantasize about building 3,000 MW of 850-ft-tall floating offshore wind turbines by 2040!!

Maine government bureaucrats, etc., in a world of their own climate-fighting fantasies, want to have about 3,000 MW of floating wind turbines by 2040; a most expensive, totally unrealistic goal, that would further impoverish the already-poor State of Maine for many decades.

Those bureaucrats, etc., would help fatten the lucrative, 20-y, tax-shelters of mostly out-of-state, multi-millionaire, wind-subsidy chasers, who likely have minimal regard for:

1) Impacts on the environment and the fishing and tourist industries of Maine, and

2) Already-overstressed, over-taxed, over-regulated Maine ratepayers and taxpayers, who are trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real-growth economy.

Those fishery-destroying, 850-ft-tall floaters, with 24/7365 strobe lights, visible 30 miles from any shore, would cost at least $7,500/ installed kW, or at least $22.5 billion, if built in 2023 (more after 2023)

Almost the entire supply of the projects would be designed and made in Europe, then transported across the Atlantic Ocean, in specialized ships, also designed and made in Europe, then unloaded at the Maine pre-assembly/staging area, then barged to specialized erection ships, for erection of the floating turbines.

About 200 Maine people would have short-term erection jobs. About 30 Maine people would have long-term O&M jobs

They would produce electricity at about 40 c/kWh, without subsidies, about 20 c/kWh with subsidies, the wholesale price at which utilities would buy from Owners (higher prices after 2023)

https://www.maine.gov/governor/mills/news/governor-mills-signs-bill...

The Maine woke bureaucrats are falling over each other to prove their "greenness", offering $millions of this and that for free, but all their primping and preening efforts has resulted in no floating offshore bids from European developers

The Maine people have much greater burdens to look forward to for the next 20 years, courtesy of the Governor Mills incompetent, woke bureaucracy that has infested the state government 

The Maine people need to finally wake up, and put an end to all the climate scare-mongering, which aims to subjugate and further impoverish them, by voting the entire Democrat woke cabal out and replace it with rational Republicans in 2024

The present course leads to financial disaster for the impoverished State of Maine and its people.

The purposely-kept-ignorant Maine people do not deserve such maltreatment

NOTE: The above prices compare with the average New England wholesale price of about 5 c/kWh, during the 2009 - 2022 period, 13 years, courtesy of:

 

Natural gas-fueled CCGT plants, with low-cost, low-CO2, very-low particulate/kWh

Nuclear plants, with low-cost, near-zero CO2, zero particulate/kWh

Hydro plants, with low-cost, near-zero-CO2, zero particulate/kWh

APPENDIX 2

Russia building more nuclear reactors than any other country, IAEA data show

MOSCOW, November 13, 2023

According to the IAEA, a total of 412 nuclear reactors are in operation at power plants across the world, with their total capacity at about 370.2 gigawatts

Russia is building more nuclear reactors that any other country in the world, according to data from the Power Reactor Information System of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The data show a total of 58 large-scale nuclear power reactors are currently under construction worldwide, of which 23 are being built by Russia. A plant may have up to 4 reactors, usually 1100 MW each

Rosatom is doing the most construction of international nuclear power units.

In Egypt, 4 reactors, each 1,200 MW = 4,800 MW for $30 billion is about $6,250/kW, which includes financing by Egypt $5 billion and by Russia $25 billion

That cost is at least 40% less then US/UK/EU

In Turkey, 4 reactors, each 1,200 MW = 4,800 MW for $20 billion is about $4,200/kW, entirely financed by Russia. The plant will be owned and operated by Rosatom

It is interesting, Rosatom's direct competitors, according to PRIS data, are three Chinese companies: CNNC, CSPI and CGN.

They are building 22 reactors, but it should be noted that they are being built primarily inside China, and the Chinese partners are building five of them together with Rosatom.

If we talk about the Americans and Europeans, they are lagging behind by a wide margin,” Alexander Uvarov, a director at the Atom-info Center and editor-in-chief at the atominfo.ru website, told TASS.

APPENDIX 3

Floating Offshore Wind in Norway

Equinor, a Norwegian company, just put in operation 11 Hywind, floating offshore wind turbines, each 8 MW, for a total of 88 MW, in the North Sea. The wind turbines are supplied by Siemens

Production will be about 88 x 8766 x 0.5, claimed lifetime capacity factor = 385,704 MWh/y, which is about 35% of the electricity used by 2 Norwegian oil rigs.

The existing diesel and gas-turbine generators on the rigs, will provide the other 65%.

The generators will counteract the up/down output of the wind turbines, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365

The generators will provide almost all the electricity during low-wind periods, and during high-wind periods, when rotors are feathered and locked.

The capital cost of the entire project was about 8 billion Norwegian Kroner, or about $750 million, as of August 2023, when all 11 units were placed in operation.

That cost was much higher than the estimated 5 billion NOK in 2019, i.e., 60% higher

The production cost likely will be about 46 c/kWh, without subsidies, about 23 c/kWh, with subsidies.

In Norway, all work associated with oil rigs is very expensive.

Workers are on the rigs for 6 weeks, and get 6 weeks off, and are paid well over $150,000/y, plus benefits.

Floating Offshore Wind in Maine

If such floating units were used in Maine, the production costs would be even higher in Maine, because of the additional cost of transport, of almost the entire supply, including specialized ships, across the Atlantic Ocean

A high voltage cable would be hanging from each unit, until it reaches bottom, say about 500 to 1000 feet. The cables would need some type of flexible support system
All the cables would be combined into one cable to run horizontally to shore, for at least 25 to 30 miles

Rich Norway people can afford to dabble in such expensive demonstration follies, but the over-taxed, over-regulated, impoverished Maine people would buckle under such a heavy burden, while trying to make ends meet in the near-zero, real-growth Maine economy.

Maine folks need lower energy bills, not higher energy bills.

Comment by Dan McKay on November 24, 2023 at 1:40pm

NERC Warns of Potential Power Shortages This Winter amid Limited Natural Gas Infrastructure

NERC and FERC found that the United States needs more natural gas pipeline capacity to maintain reliable gas supply during extreme cold weather to prevent a repetition of last winter’s power outages. More natural gas pipeline capacity is needed to maintain a resilient system that affords homes and the power grid access to multiple sources of the fuel. Unfortunately, pipelines in this country are having a hard time being built. The 303-mile Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline, for example, was originally set for completion in 2018 and may finally be completed by early next year. Permitting delays and court action have increased the pipeline’s cost from the original estimate of $3.5 billion to $6.6 billion. Permitting reform is needed, but the Biden administration seems to only want it for development of “green technologies.”

                      New England’s Future Vulnerability

New England is particularly vulnerable since its natural gas infrastructure is very limited. And the reliability of its electric grid could get even worse next year. A possible loss of the Everett Marine LNG terminal could jeopardize the reliability of New England’s energy supply, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and NERC. The LNG import terminal has been supporting natural gas supplies in New England since its first shipment over 50 years ago.

The 1,413-megawatt Mystic natural gas-fired power plant owned by Constellation Energy is scheduled to retire after May 2024.  The plant is fueled by Constellation Energy’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility on the Mystic River in Everett, Massachusetts. The company also provides natural gas from its LNG facility to gas providers in New England. The retirement plan could change, however, if the regional grid operator or another body determines the plant is required to preserve reliability or for other reasons.