ISO-NE Study Shows Need for Dispatchable Generation - Go Figure

ISO-NE: Significant dispatchable resources are a must in a decarbonized grid

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

Key takeaways

ISO New England worked with the New England states and regional stakeholders to develop assumptions and scenarios that looked at varying levels of decarbonization. Much of the study focuses on a deep decarbonization scenario derived from the Massachusetts 2050 Deep Decarbonization Roadmap Study, which imagines heavy renewable penetration and high electrification loads.

The analysis found:

Energy adequacy is a challenge under the studied scenarios.

  • The region would likely require significant dispatchable resources, such as natural gas or stored fuels, to support periods when variable resources are unavailable.
  • Battery storage systems may have difficulty sufficiently charging under predicted system demand curves.
  • The retirement of the region’s remaining nuclear generators, assumed in some scenarios, may pose a challenge to system reliability and state decarbonization goals.

The need for resource and demand flexibility increases under the studied scenarios.

  • The renewable energy resources needed for decarbonization are variable, and do not have the controllability and predictability of the region’s current dispatchable resources—meaning increased regulation services may be required.
  • Flexibility of both generation and demand resources may be needed to maintain the system’s balance.
  • The region may struggle to maintain necessary operating reserves in scenarios of high electrification and more aggressive retirements of existing resources.

A changing resource mix poses new challenges to the grid.

  • As the proportion of variable energy resources increases, and as New England’s grid again becomes a winter peaking system, processes and procedures may need to be refined, and remain fluid over the course of the grid’s transition.
  • The reserve margin—the resources needed to keep the system reliable and meet consumer demand in times of stress—may need to increase by an order of magnitude by 2040. Diversity in the future resource mix may reduce the need for additional resources.
  • As wind and solar become the region’s predominant sources of electricity, modeling approaches must better reflect the variability of these resources to produce representative results.
  • Current models assume summer production levels of select resources, because these resources have lower production capability in the summer. Assuming these lower levels year-round is a conservative way to model the grid. As stress on the grid shifts to the winter, this approach is likely to overstate risk to the system.

Dispatchable units are crucial to the future grid

A modified version of the scenario that considers deep decarbonization — which models a future grid most closely described by current state policies related to future emissions — examined how reliability criteria could be met through a balanced mix of increased wind, solar, and energy storage. This scenario (Scenario 3_P7 in the chart below) would require such a large amount of wind and solar that it may present significant challenges to the transmission system and require an outsized amount of land or offshore areas to be sited and developed for the necessary wind and solar farms.

However, as shown below, the substitution of 3,000 MW of dispatchable units (which could include a variety of potentially emission-free technologies) would reduce the necessary new units of wind, solar, and storage by 19% (17,000 MW), illustrating the importance of dispatchable resources to the future grid. This substitution is represented in the chart below as “Scenario 3_P7 with DEFRs” (dispatchable emissions-free resources).

The substitution of 3,000 MW of dispatchable units (which could include a variety of potentially emission-free technologies) would reduce the necessary new units of wind, solar, and storage by 19% (17,000 MW).

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Comment by Dan McKay on August 5, 2022 at 5:41am

ISO-NE doesn't post the individual supply bids from individual generators and imports.  All we see is the last bid offer that coincides with the energy needed at the moment.

If they would disclose the individual offers, we could see the manipulation that is allowed to happen within the wholesale market. 

The complicated system devised by ISO-NE invites sophisticated techniques employed freely by market participants, all of it kept secret and condoned.

A new system must be considered before the collapse occurs, killing innocent people.

Comment by Penny Gray on August 4, 2022 at 6:41pm

I truly fear for the future, if this is as high an IQ our "energy experts" can muster.  How about reducing wind and solar and battery storage to zero?  No mention of nuclear, the dirty word nobody wants to utter, because it's so politically incorrect.

Comment by Dan McKay on August 4, 2022 at 5:06pm

Nothing cheap about green except the cheap empty suits making energy policies. 

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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