COP21-SUMMARY OF WORLD CO2eq EMISSIONS; ALL SOURCES AND ENERGY RELATED

The man-made world CO2eq, energy related, were only about 36.183/53.4 = 68% of all manmade sources, in 2016.

Much of current efforts to reduce emissions have been energy-related, as in Germany, which has had the same CO2eq emissions during the 2009 - 2017 period, while charging about 225 billion euros to household electric bills during these 9 years, because it is closing nuclear plants and using about the same quantity of coal each year.

The reduction of emissions, not energy-related, is the more difficult and the more expensive part, as it likely would involve significant lifestyle changes and population reduction policies.

 

Most of Europe, Japan and Russia already are at near-zero population growth. China and India and a few other countries need to stop their population growth.

Categories of Emissions

Various organizations issue emissions reports, but often they fail to mention the included categories of emissions. Here is a list of categories:

 

CO2 from energy

CO2 from international maritime and air transport

CO2 from other (non-energy)

CH4 from energy

CH4 from agriculture

Ch4 from waste and other

N20 from agriculture

N20 from industrial processes

N2O from energy indirect/waste

F-gases

CO2 from land use change emissions

N20 and CH4 from forest and peat fires

 

If all manmade sources were added, the CO2eq would be about 53.4 billion Mt. See URL, figure 2.1

http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2017-tren...

Summary of World CO2eq Emissions; All Sources

The world CO2eq, all sources, including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), per IPCC, is shown in table 1. As the total for 2016 is less than 53.4 b Mt, it is likely one or more of the above categories were not included.

There has been a reduction in the rate of increase of emissions during the past few years. However, a 1.4 percent increase is estimated for 2017.

The IPCC BAU CO2eq projection for 2030 was based on a higher growth rate than the actuals in 2015 and 2016. See table 1 and graph in URL.

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/22070/EGR_201...;

Table 1

2014

2015

2016

2030 IPCC

CO2eq Emissions, 

%

b Mt 

b Mt 

b Mt 

b Mt 

Electricity and Heat

25

12.93

12.95

12.98

16.18

Agriculture, Forestry, Other land use

24

12.41

12.43

12.46

15.53

Industry

21

10.86

10.88

10.90

13.59

Transportation

14

7.24

7.25

7.27

9.06

Buildings

6

3.10

3.11

3.11

3.88

Other energy

10

5.17

5.18

5.19

6.47

World CO2 

100

51.70

51.80

51.90

64.70

0.19

0.19

1.01

 

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/asn-ecofys-2013-world-ghg-emissio...

http://oceanacidification.msi.ucsb.edu/resources/image-gallery/data...

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/oil-gas-cows-culprits-in-methane...

http://uneplive.unep.org/media/docs/theme/13/EGR_2015_ES_English_Em...

Summary of World CO2eq Emissions, Energy-Related

The below table shows, since Kyoto, the world’s energy-related CO2eq emissions (MMt), have been steadily increasing, largely due to increased combustion of coal by China and India. During 2015 and 2016, there has been a reduction in the rate of increase, largely due to the US and China burning less coal. However, the IEA reported a 1.4% increase for 2017. Use slider in URL to get year to year data.

http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions

Table 3/Year

Fossil and Cement

Incr. %/y

Energy-related

CO2 MMt

1990

22,220

Kyoto base line

2002

25,599

15

2006

30,499

37

2007

31,110

2.0

40

2008

32,120

3.2

45

2009

31,837

-0.9

43

2010

33,419

5.0

50

2011

34,791

4.1

57

2012

35,420

1.8

59

2013

35,779

1.0

61

2014

36,081

0.8

62

2015

36,019

-0.2

62

2016

36,183

0.5

63

2017

36,680

1.4

65

APPENDIX 1

The below table shows a comparison of total US and Germany CO2eq emissions, all sources. The US reduced CO2, Germany did not, since 2009.

Table 2/Year

US

Germany

 

CO2eq MMt

CO2eq MMt

1990

5032

1251

2002

5792

1030

2006

5898

999

2007

5989

972

2008

5797

975

2009

5374

907

2010

5571

942

2011

5433

922

2012

5220

927

2013

5349

945

2014

5394

904

2015

5248

902

2016

5200

906

 

APPENDIX 2

GERMANY NOT MEETING CO2eq EMISSION REDUCTION GOALS

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/germany-not-meeting-co2...

APPENDIX 3

Fossil Fuel Percentage Unchanged for Over 43 years: In the 1970s the big worry was fossil fuels would soon run out, and so we should “use them wisely”. But in the 1980s the risk changed to one of an overheating planet, and so we should not use them at all. This article shows unchanged fossil energy use from 1970 to 2013, a period of 43 years.

http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/12/green-energy-revolution-a-flop-f...

 

Fossil fuels have been 78 to 80 percent of total primary energy for at least 43 years, despite trillions of dollars having been spent on RE during the past 20 years. It appears there is plenty of FF for at least the next 80 to 100 years, albeit at higher prices.

 

The man-made world CO2eq emissions, energy related, were about 36.183/53.4 = 68% from all sources, in 2016. Considering the extreme steepness of the FF CO2 reductions to stay within 2 C by 2100, which are impossible to implement (see graphs in URLs), even steeper reductions to reduce ALL manmade CO2 would be impossible as well, even if the entire world were to build only wind, solar, nuclear and hydro plants as of right now. See URLs.

 

http://euanmearns.com/global-co2-emissions-forecast-to-2100/#more-2...;

https://www.carbonbrief.org/what-global-co2-emissions-2016-mean-cli...

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-set-to-ri...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-world-making-almost...

 

APPENDIX 4

Modern Renewables Percentage: Here is a table of global primary energy consumption percentages (fuels, electricity, etc.) during the 2011 - 2015 period, which, indicates hardly any progress towards RE, despite worldwide investments in renewables of $250 - $300 billion in each of these 5 years. The fossil fuel percentage likely remained about the same in 2016 and 2017. Table 1 shows the data for the years 2011 - 2015, a 5-y period.

 

The total primary energy of modern renewables, including hydro, was 10.2%. The primary energy of wind + solar + bio + geo electricity was only 1.6% in 2015. That percentage likely was about 1.8% in 2016, for a growth rate of 10.4%/y for the past 5 years.

 

If that growth rate were extended to 2030, that category would increased from 1.8% in 2016 to 7.2% in 2030, which would have a negligible impact on global temperatures.

 

Traditional Biomass Percentage: The total primary energy of traditional biomass, used primarily for cooking and heating in remote and rural areas of developing countries, accounted for about 9.1%. Google: “REN 21 Renewables 2017” report.

http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2017/chapters/chapter_01/chapter_01/

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cop-21-world-renewable-...

  

Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

 2015

Percent

 %

 %

 %

 %

%

Fossil fuels

78.2

78.4

78.3

78.3

78.4

Nuclear

  2.8

  2.6

  2.6

  2.5

2.3

Total renewables

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.2

19.3

Modern renewables

9.7

10.0

10.1

10.3

10.2

- Biomass + geo + solar heat

4.1

4.2

4.1

  4.2

4.2

- Hydro electricity

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.6

- Wind + solar + bio + geo electricity

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

- Biofuels, such as corn ethanol

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Traditional biomass

9.3

9.0

9.0

  8.9

9.1

 

http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2012KFen.pdf  

http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/GSR2015_KeyFindings...

http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/KeyFindings_2013_lo...

http://www.ren21.net/Portals/0/documents/Resources/GSR/2014/GSR2014...

http://www.ren21.net/resources/publications/

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Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT (excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?"  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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