COP21-POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY IN 2050 AND CAPITAL COSTS

This article describes the build-outs of nuclear, wind and solar required by 2050 to make progress towards the IPCC temperature goals of 2.0 C above pre-industrial by 2100 or 1.5 C above pre-industrial by 2100. Estimates of world and US electricity generation are shown. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cop21-ipcc-co2-emission...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cop-21-world-renewable-...

Think Tank Studies

The US grid and grids of other countries have to provide electricity with a reliability of 99.97% or better, 24/7/365, year after year.

A number of government and academic entities are producing reports (usually government financed) that wind and solar and hydro would be sufficient to provide ALL energy services for the world. These entities make it a point to avoid mentioning nuclear energy.

 

The reality is, many nuclear plants are being built all over the world. The countries owning these plants will have then in operation for at least 60 years. Government/academic entities ignoring their existence, likely for ideological/political reasons, are far beyond rational.

Huge Nuclear, Wind and Solar Build-Outs Are Needed

At present, China, Russia and India are the main actors in the world’s nuclear sector. All three have major building programs. Nuclear electricity generation increased in 2015 and 2016, after about a decade of decreases. See URLs.

 

China: As of May 2017, China had 37 nuclear reactors operating with a capacity of 32.4 GW and 20 under construction with a capacity of 20.5 GW. Additional reactors are planned, providing 58 GW of capacity by 2020. Total production 170 TWh in 2015, 213 TWh in 2016.

China builds nuclear plants in China within 4 years, and for less than $4000/kW, turnkey.

China is getting a lot of experience doing that, which would make it a formidable competitor in the world.

Japan, the EU and the US took the beyond-rational approach. They have nearly abandoned the nuclear sector.

 

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles.aspx

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-20/china-s-nuclear-...

 

China	Number	Capacity	Production 2015	Production 2016
		MW	TWh	TWh
Existing	37	32.4	170	213
Construction	20	20.5
Planned		58.0
2025-2030		110.9
US		<100

Middle East: Several countries in the Middle East have ambitious nuclear build-out plans during the next 10 years.

 

Country	Units	MW/unit	MW	Supplier
UAE	4	1400	5600	South Korea
Saudi Arabia	16	1100	17600
Egypt	4
Sudan	4
Jordan	2
Iran	2	900	1800	Russia
Turkey	4	1200	4800	Russia

Energy Transformation of World Economy

The transformation of the world’s economies and build-outs of systems for 90% RE will never happen, unless massive nuclear plant capacity, at least 1,500,000 MW, is built by 2050, and that capacity would have to provide much of the world’s electrical energy to replace fossil fuels with synthetic fuels and other electrical consumption. This URL shows, the world is on track to have 500,000 MW of nuclear by 2040.

http://www.theenergycollective.com/todayinenergy/2416241/eia-foreca...

Modern RE (wind, solar, hydro, bio, etc.) would provide part of the world’s electricity. At present modern renewables provide about 10%. See URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-world-making-almost...

 

Potential Build-out of Future Electricity Sources

A potential future capacity build-out from 2016 to 2050, costing $21.4 trillion, or $630 b/y, could be as shown in table 1.

 

The wind and solar build-outs likely would require major replacements/refurbishments in about year 20 and year 40, whereas the nuclear build-out would be designed for a 60-year life.

 

In addition:

 

1) Grid system build-outs and storage systems would be required to connect all those wind and solar systems, plus

2) Large capacities of traditional plants would need to be kept in service for providing synchronous rotational inertia for grid stability, and for providing peaking, filling-in and balancing, as required by demand, 24/7/365, year after year. See Table 1 and URLs.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-wind-e...

 

Table 1/Source	Existing	Capacity	Life	Generation	Capital cost	Year 20	Year 40
	MW in 2016	MW in 2050	y	TWh/y	$trillion	$trillion	$trillion
Nuclear	392,000	1,500,000	60	11.3	8.3
Wind, onshore	474,170	1,500,000	25	4.0	3.3	2.0	2.0
Wind, offshore	12,630	500,000	25	2.0	1.8	1.1	1.1
Solar, PV	303,000	2,000,000	25	3.5	8.0	4.0	4.0
Total				20.8	21.4	7.1	7.1

  

APPENDIX 1

World Electricity Generation: Future world electricity generation likely would need to increase by at least 100% from 2016 to 2050, due to:

 

1) World economic and population growth

2) Continuing energy efficiency

3) Build-outs of heat pumps for heating and cooling of buildings

4) Plug-in electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids

5) Production of synthetic fuel

 

The above build-outs of nuclear, wind and solar would provide just 20.8/50 = 41.6% of the projected electricity of 2050. See table 2.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics...

 

Table 2/Year	TWh	Added TWh	Added TWh/y
2050	50000.0	25183.6	740.7
2016	24816.4	600.9
2015	24215.5	371.5
2014	23844.0	441.1
2013	23402.9	605.6
2012	22797.3	554.9
2011	22242.4	680.7
2010	21561.7

 

NOTE: France generates about 80% of its electricity with nuclear plants, equivalent to about 35% of its primary energy.

 

- France has among the lowest household electric rates in west Europe, about 15 eurocent/kWh

- Germany and Denmark, RE leaders, about 30 eurocent/kWh

- France electrical system CO2 intensity about 58 g CO2/kWh

- Germany about 560 g CO2/kWh. Germany will not meet its 2020 and 2030 CO2eq Energiewende goals.

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/german-renewable-energy...

 

APPENDIX 2

US Electricity Generation in 2050: The present level of subsidies (which will be decreasing in future years), market conditions, etc., draw enough capital for annually adding about 27.373 TWh/y of RE, the average annual increase of the past 5 years.

 

Such additions would reach a level of 27.373 x 35 y = 958.055 TWh in 2050, for a total of 567.348 (in 2015) + 958.055 (addition) = 1525.403 TWh from RE in 2050.

 

US net generation is assumed to increase from 4077.601 TWh in 2015 to 6728.042 TWh in 2050, an increase of about 65%. RE would become 1525.403/6728.042 = 22.67% of net generation in 2050.

 

The goal of 90% RE by 2050 would not be achievable without at least doubling or tripling the subsidies to attract capital to:

 

1) Build out nuclear, wind and solar systems

2) Highly visible, nationwide HVAC and HVDC transmissions systems

3) TWh-scale energy storage systems to cover wind and solar variability, multi-day wind and solar lulls and seasonal variations.

 

The energy cost, $/MWh, of all that would be at least 2 - 3 times the existing systems, as proven by Denmark and Germany, which have high levels of RE and have the highest household rates in Europe; about 30 eurocent/kWh. 

 

France, 80% nuclear generation, has one of the lowest household rates in Europe; about 15 eurocent/kWh. See graphs in URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-l...