The fallacious arguments from Heather Sanborn, Philip Bartlett and Jack Shapiro

by Dan McKay

on Thursday

  • The fallacious arguments from Heather Sanborn, our Public Advocate and Guardian for low electricity prices, and Philip Bartlett, our PUC Commission Chair, overseer of reasonable electricity prices and Jack Shapiro of the Natural Resource Council of Maine, a climate alarmist, is that natural gas is the what id driving higher electricity prices in Maine.
  • If that is a fact, then we would expect the rise in natural gas fuel prices would correspond intimately with the rise in retail, "Standard Offer" prices. The generation costs of electricity in the ISO-NE wholesale market is linked to the "Standard Offer", which is described on bills as the "Supply Cost", the retail cost derived from wholesale market( generation)  costs.
  • The PUC reports the "Standard Offer" price for CMP customers in 2020 was 7.3037 cents per kilowatt hour.
  • The PUC reports the "Standard Offer" price for CMP customers in 2026 is  12.721 cents per kilowatt hour.
  • ISO-NE reports the average price of natural gas for power plants in New England in 2020 was $2.10 per MMBTU
  • ISO-NE reports the average price of natural gas for power plants in New England in 2025 was $6.26 per MMBTU ( An increase of $4.16 per MMBTU ).
  • Converting MMBTU to price per kilowatt hour by formula:
  • Essentially all generation from natural gas power plants in NE is from "Combined Cycle" plants that have an efficiency rating of 50% producing 500,000 BTUs of electric energy from 1 MMBTU of natural gas fuel.
  • 3412 BTUs of electric energy will produce 1 kilowatt hour of usable electricity.
  • 500,000BTUs of electric energy will produce 500,000 divided by 3412 = 146.5 kilowatt hours of usable electricity.
  • From above, we note that the difference in the price of natural gas fuel from 2020 to 2025  is $4.16/MMBTU
  • We would expect an increase of $4.16/MMBTU would increase the electricity cost by 4.16 divided by 146.5 = 2.840 cents per kilowatt hour. 
  • If natural gas fuel costs are the only factor in the rise of Supply Costs, we expect the 2026 "Standard Offer(SO)" would be 7.3037 cents per kwh + 2,840 cents per kwh = 10.1437 cents per kwh, however the SO price is 12.7210 cents per kwh.
  • This extra 2.58 cents per kwh cannot be blamed on natural gas fuel cost increase, so where did it come from? Hint:  Programs that ratepayers pay for to subsidize solar, wind and battery storage, i.e. RGGI and RECs.

  •  Come on, Sanborn, Bartlett, Shapiro. Enough lies.