Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine
3 New York wind farms scrapped
by Bruce Mohl, April 20, 2024, commonwealthbeacon.org
New York pulled the plug Friday on three offshore wind projects that encountered pricing problems after GE canceled the development of a larger turbine that the developers had been counting on.
The decision is a setback for the US offshore wind industry and may have some cost implications for Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, which are in the midst of a joint procurement for offshore wind power.
The three wind farms proposed for the coast off New York were all tied to a plan by GE Vernova to start producing giant 18-megawatt turbines at a facility on the Hudson River to be subsidized by the state.
When GE announced in February that it wouldn’t be building the 18-megawatt turbines and instead would focus on constructing 15.5 megawatt turbines, the pricing of the three wind farms was thrown off. (Using smaller turbines would mean a need for more turbines and thus higher costs.) The companies ultimately decided they could no longer go forward with pricing in the $150-per-megawatt-hour range and the deals, which had received preliminary approvals, were scrapped. New York officials say a $300 million state subsidy for the GE plant will be withdrawn.
The three developer teams included Vineyard Offshore and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners; RWE Offshore Renewables and National Grid Ventures; and TotalEnergies, Ride Light and Power, and Corio Generation.
Vineyard Offshore is also bidding in the New England procurement and currently partnering with Avangrid to build Vineyard Wind 1.
Vineyard Wind 1 is using 13.6-megawatt turbines from GE Vernova. It’s contracted price, negotiated before the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, is $89 per megawatt hour. Three other wind farm deals were negotiated and approved in Massachusetts at less than $80 a megawatt hour, but all three were terminated when interest rates and inflation took off.
https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2024/04/20/3-new-york-wind-farms-scrapped/
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Willem Post
Those bureaucrat/liberal/leftist net-zero folks, who are so concerned, likely do not have any idea how much those 850-ft-tall monsters will add to their electric bills for DECADES, making New York State totally uncompetitive on domestic and world markets and a poor state for businesses to invest in.
Excerpt from
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/world-s-largest-offsho...
US Offshore Wind Electricity Production and Cost
Electricity production about 30,000 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, lifetime capacity factor = 105,192,000 MWh, or 105.2 TWh. The production would be about 100 x 105.2/4000 = 2.63% of the annual electricity loaded onto US grids.
Electricity Cost, c/kWh: Assume a $550 million, 100 MW project consists of foundations, wind turbines, cabling to shore, and installation, at $5,500/kW.
Production 100 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, CF = 350,640,000 kWh/y
Amortize bank loan for $385 million, 70% of project, at 6.5%/y for 20 y, 9.824 c/kWh.
Owner return on $165 million, 30% of project, at 10%/y for 20 y, 5.449 c/kWh
Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.
Supply chain, special ships, ocean transport, 3 c/kWh
All other items, 4 c/kWh
Total cost 9.824 + 5.449 + 8 + 3 + 4 = 30.273 c/kWh
Less 50% subsidies (ITC, 5-y depreciation, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 15.137 c/kWh
Owner sells to utility at 15.137 c/kWh; developers in NY state, etc., want much more. See Above.
Not included: At a future 30% wind/solar on the grid:
Cost of onshore grid expansion/reinforcement, about 2 c/kWh
Cost of a fleet of plants for counteracting/balancing, 24/7/365, about 2.0 c/kWh
In the UK, in 2020, it was 1.9 c/kWh at 28% wind/solar loaded onto the grid
Cost of curtailments, 2.0 c/kWh
Cost of decommissioning, i.e., disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites
Levelized Cost of Energy Deceptions, by US-EIA, et al.
Most people have no idea wind and solar systems need grid expansion/reinforcement and expensive support systems to even exist on the grid.
With increased annual W/S electricity percent on the grid, increased grid investments are needed, plus greater counteracting plant capacity, MW, especially when it is windy and sunny around noon-time.
Increased counteracting of the variable W/S output, places an increased burden on the grid’s other generators, causing them to operate in an inefficient manner (more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh), which adds more cost/kWh to the offshore wind electricity cost of about 16 c/kWh, after 50% subsidies
The various cost/kWh adders start with annual W/S electricity at about 8% on the grid.
The adders become exponentially greater, with increased annual W/S electricity percent on the grid
The US-EIA, Lazard, Bloomberg, etc., and their phony LCOE “analyses”, are deliberately understating the cost of wind, solar and battery systems
Their LCOE “analyses” of W/S/B systems purposely exclude major LCOE items.
Their deceptions reinforced the popular delusion, W/S are competitive with fossil fuels, which is far from reality.
The excluded LCOE items are shifted to taxpayers, ratepayers, and added to government debts.
W/S would not exist without at least 50% subsidies
W/S output could not be physically fed into the grid, without items 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. See list.
1) Subsidies equivalent to about 50% of project lifetime owning and operations cost,
2) Grid extension/reinforcement to connect remote W/S systems to load centers
3) A fleet of quick-reacting power plants to counteract the variable W/S output, on a less-than-minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365
4) A fleet of power plants to provide electricity during low-W/S periods, and 100% during high-W/S periods, when rotors are feathered and locked,
5) Output curtailments to prevent overloading the grid, i.e., paying owners for not producing what they could have produced
6) Hazardous waste disposal of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries. See image.
Apr 22
Willem Post
German, UK folks, and all other CO2-reduction/phobia fanatics have wasted many $trillions on hare-brained wind/solar/battery/EV/Heat Pump, etc., schemes
They have impoverished tens of millions of people in the process, because they are spreading THE TRUE FAITH, based on their science, to save the world
Their elites have made oodles of $billions in the process, FOR DECADES.
You will NEVER hear of a halt for building private planes and yachts!!
Excerpts from:
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-p...
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-e...
Retained Energy in Atmosphere
Dry Air and Water Vapor
ha = Cpa x T = 1006 kJ/kg.C x T, where Cpa is specific heat of dry air
hg = (2501 kJ/kg, specific enthalpy of WV at 0 C) + (Cpwv x T = 1.84 kJ/kg x T), where Cpwv is specific heat of WV at constant pressure
.
1) Worldwide, determine enthalpy of moist air: T = 16 C and H = 0.0025 kg WV/kg dry air (4028 ppm)
h = ha + H.hg = (1.006T) + H(2501 + 1.84T) = 1.006 (16) + 0.0025 {2501 + 1.84 (16)} = 22.4 kJ/kg dry air
About 16.1 kJ/kg of dry air is retained by air and 6.3 kJ/kg by WV
.
2) Tropics, determine enthalpy of moist air: T = 27 C and H = 0.017 kg WV/kg dry air (27389 ppm)
h = 1.006 (27) + 0.017 {2501 + 1.84 (16)} = 70.5 kJ/kg dry air
About 27.2 kJ/kg of dry air is retained by air and 43.3 kJ/kg by WV
https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Enthalpy-of-Moist-Air#:~:text....
.
CO2
h CO2 = Cp CO2 x K = 0.834 x (16 + 273) = 241 kJ/kg CO2, where Cp CO2 is specific heat
.
Worldwide, determine enthalpy of CO2 = {(423 x 44)/(1000000 x 29 = 0.000642 kg CO2/kg dry air} x
241 kJ/kg CO2) @ 289 K = 0.155 kJ/kg dry air.
.
Retained energy, world: (16.1 + 6.3 + 0.155) kJ/kg dry air) x 1000j/kJ x 5.148 x 10^18 kg, atmosphere/10^18 = 1.161 x 10^5 EJ
.
Retained energy, Tropics: (27.2 + 43.3 + 0.155) kJ/kg dry air x 1000J/kJ x 2.049 x 10^18 kg, atmosphere/10^18 = 1,448 x 10^5 EJ. Some of the energy is transferred to other latitudes
.
The Tropics is a giant energy storage area, almost all of it by evaporating water.
CO2 plays a 100 x (0.155/70.655) = 0.219% role.
At least 35% of the Tropics energy is transferred, and replenished by the sun, 24/7/365, to latitudes north and south of the 37 parallels, which do not get enough incoming solar energy.
Humans consumed 604/365 = 1.65 EJ/d, in 2022
Apr 22
Willem Post
The scrapped projects are:
1404 MW Attentive Energy One
1314 MW Community Offshore Wind
1314 MW Excelsior Wind
GE had bid its 18 MW wind turbine, but decided to standardize on its 15 MW turbine
That meant more capital costs
As a result, the 15 c/kWh, at which Owners would sell to Utilities had to be increased.
Politicians in Albany decided, this being an election year, increasing household electric bills would not be a good idea. So they cancelled the 3 projects, because they did not want to be voted out of office.
Saving the world can wait.
A bunch of total hypocrites
Apr 24