Blackouts, Get Your Blackouts - Step Right Up Gov. Mills.

It appears that ISO NE is predicting rolling blackouts (like CA) this winter if NE has a protracted cold spell. When did that ever happen (sarc)? Tight supply of NG is the culprit (thank you MA) and without pipeline access, NE is up sh_ts creek without a megawatt. And power bills are about to soar. But what about all those windmills and solar panels governor? Any comment Senator King?

Brief report of the pending sh_tshow from ZeroHedge. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/extreme-cold-may-trigger-powe...

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Comment by Willem Post on October 19, 2022 at 10:29am

Fuel Oil Minimum Storage Capacity
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

Fuel oil used by power plants during the DECEMBER 24, 2017, TO JANUARY 8, 2018, cold period was = (1,303,415 MWh/0.50, average efficiency) x (3,412,000 Btu/MWh x 1 gallon/140,000 Btu, LHV = 63.532 million gallons  

The storage capacity should exceed maximum use by at least 20%, i.e., about 80 million gallons NEAR POWER PLANTS.
Maximum use likely occurs during longer cold periods.

It should be abundantly clear, the capacities of NE strategic oil and gas storage systems should be increased, to ensure reliable delivery of electricity service, including for future heat pumps and electric vehicles.

That electricity should be generated by highly efficient, oil/gas-fired, on-demand, CCGT plants, especially during likely combinations of events, that would stress the NE grid. 

Wind and solar would be totally unreliable during such stressed conditions.
Battery storage would be grossly too expensive during relatively rare stressed conditions.

New England

By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:

1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and

2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US IS AIMING TO BLINDLY COPY THE DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO

Comment by arthur qwenk on October 18, 2022 at 9:19am

Move, the only answer if this insanity comes to fruition!

Comment by Dan McKay on October 18, 2022 at 5:33am

ISO-NE discloses the list of proposed generation projects for the foreseeable future. This chart is a sign of what is to come when weather dependent generation is the politicians' answer to weather related incidents.  

Comment by Willem Post on October 17, 2022 at 9:50pm

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018-r

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

This article describes in detail what happened in New England during an unusual cold period.
As there was insufficient natural gas in storage, increased fuel oil had to be used
When stored fuel oil almost ran out, increased coal had to be used.


This entire situation arose, due to environmental zealots in New York State, Connecticut and Massachusetts banding together to not allow:

 

1) The building of sufficient natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England

2) The building of sufficient gas and fuel oil storage near gas/oil-fired CCGT plants.

3) The keeping of coal and nuclear plants for standby service, as needed, but pushing for the premature closing of the plants.

 

This is analogous to Germany’s 20-plus-years of ENERGIEWENDE idiocy, etc., which has led to all sorts of very expensive disruptions of the German and European economy and society.

 

Biden’s folks are belatedly “reinventing” THAT wind/solar/battery wheel, with their “Inflation Reduction” Act.

 

This ISO-NE report details the history of the cold period

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/01/20180112_col...

 

Pages 13, 37, 42, 48, 49, 50 of the above ISO-NE report are of particular interest.

 

The ISO-NE report of the cold period served to document a set of unusual circumstances, that are highly likely to repeat themselves in the future, such as:

 

- Very low Winter temperatures, lasting several days, which could have been accompanied with low wind and solar conditions.

- Natural gas supply being diverted from power plants to residential and commercial buildings for space heating

- Oil/gas-fired CCGT plants barely having sufficient fuel oil supply in storage

- A transmission line serving a nuclear plant failing, or a major plant having an unscheduled outage

- Imports via tie lines with Canada and New York State varying up and down, page 42

 

The NE area just barely avoided rolling black-outs during the cold period.

If low temperatures had persisted just 2 days longer, the fuel oil supply would have been depleted.

NOTE: To rely on the weather to provide electricity is full of pitfalls, as Europe, California and Texas, etc., have found out.

In 2022, there was plenty of hot weather and sunshine, but little wind and rainfall in Europe

As a result, there was much solar electricity, but little wind electricity, and curtailed hydro electricity

Nuclear electricity was also reduced, because those plants need adequate cooling water to function.

Importance of Stored Fuel Oil to the NE Grid

Fuel oil was the unsung hero of the cold period.

Fuel oil reliably provided more than one-third of total NE generation on Jan. 5, 6, and 7.

Net imports add about 19% to total NE generation to provide the total grid load, on an annual basis.

 

NOTE: Anyone advocating reducing the barely adequate NE oil and gas storage system capacity is seriously irrational.

 

The table was prepared by Warren Van Wyck

Cold Period Days

Oil, MWh

NE gener, %

Sun, Dec 24, 2017

3,176

1.3

Mon, Dec 25, 2017

3,030

1.2

Tue, Dec 26, 2017

10,444

3.5

Wed, Dec 27, 2017

47,719

15.0

Thu, Dec 28, 2017

104,187

28.8

Fri, Dec 29, 2017

100,896

28.8

Sat, Dec 30, 2017

88,587

26.0

Sun, Dec 31, 2017

89,853

26.2

Mon, Jan 01, 2018

95,572

26.9

Tue, Jan 02, 2018

117,398

30.8

Wed, Jan 03, 2018

106,142

30.3

Thu, Jan 04, 2018

79,958

23.8

Fri, Jan 05, 2018

118,898

34.5

Sat, Jan 06, 2018

125,591

34.9

Sun, Jan 07, 2018

129,912

36.4

Mon, Jan 08, 2018

82,052

24.8

.

Closing Power Plants and Constraining Fuel Supplies

 

Various nuclear and coal plants had previously been politically shutdown, instead of being kept for standby purposes, as is done in other countries, such as Germany.

 

Natural gas supply to the NE area, and to NE gas and oil storage systems, had previously been politically constrained.

The Irrelevance of Wind and Solar During Stressful and Peak Conditions 

 

- Solar, 2400 MW nameplate, behind-the-meter, on distribution grids, never exceeded 800 MW, but only around noontime. There would be near-zero solar during late afternoon/early-evening, when peak demand hours occurred. See page 48

- Solar, 83 MW nameplate, in-front-of-the-meter, on the HV grid, never exceeded 26 MW, but only around noontime. There would be near-zero solar during late afternoon/early-evening, when peak demand hours occurred. See page 49

- Wind, 1300 MW nameplate, randomly varied up and down between 1000 MW to 100 MW. The lows could occur at any time during late-afternoon/early-evening, when peak demand hours occurred. See page 50

 

The build-out of additional wind and solar capacity, MW, provides a minimal additional predictable, reliable source of electricity, especially during multi-day wind/solar lulls, and the peak demand hours of late afternoon/early-evening.

 

Hydro plants with very large reservoirs, such as in Quebec and Norway, and pumped-storage plants, with large upper reservoirs, plus lower reservoirs with pumps, useful service lives about 100 years, are the only economic ways to store large quantities of variable, intermittent, weather-dependent, wind and solar electricity.

 

Using grid-scale battery systems, useful service life about 15 years, would be at least 15 times more costly per kWh. See URLs

 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

History Will Repeat Itself, Unless Sanity Prevails

 

A set of circumstances, similar to the above, is likely to happen more often, if the “leave-it-in-the-ground-recommendations” of RE folks, who likely never analyzed, never designed, and never operated any energy system, would actually be implemented.

NOTE: To rely on the weather to provide electricity is full of pitfalls as Europe, California and Texas, etc., have found out.

In 2022, there was plenty of hot weather and sunshine, but little wind and rainfall in Europe

As a result, there was much solar electricity, but little wind electricity, and curtailed hydro electricity

Nuclear electricity was also reduced, because those plants need adequate cooling water to function.

Comments on Below Image

 

The below image, prepared by Warren Van Wyck, shows the electricity loaded onto the NE HV grid, by source.

The white gap below "System Load" is net imports from nearby grids.

 

Nuclear, orange, is steady. The output step-down was due to a transmission line failure.

Fuel oil was a critical standby source, because natural gas had been diverted to building heating during low temperatures.

Fuel oil normal use is minimal throughout the year.

NOTE: The solar installed capacity, MW, in-front-of-the-meter, FTM, (seen by ISO-NE, because it is connected to the NE HV grid) is a small percent of the solar installed capacity behind-the-meter, BTM, (rooftops, meadows, etc., not seen by ISO-NE, because it is connected to distribution grids)

Comment by Richard McDonald/Saving Maine on October 17, 2022 at 6:52pm

Dan, There was an article in the Globe a couple of weeks ago stating  National Grid is expecting a 60% increase in utility rates this season - CMP/Versa can't be far behind. And these clowns want inflict Net Zero on us in less than 10 years - a very expensive, disastrous pipe dream. Maybe the Northern Maine trans corridor and S. Aroostook wind scam will save the day.  

Comment by Dan McKay on October 17, 2022 at 5:26pm

80 million gallons of oil burned last winter from ISO-NE requested plant storage. We are in a mess with not one politician coming forward with remedies.

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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