Comments - Even the European left understands what the Ukraine invasion means for fossil fuels. - Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine2024-03-28T15:10:29Zhttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/comment/feed?attachedTo=4401701%3ABlogPost%3A237432&xn_auth=noEXCERPT
THE UKRAINE PLOT IS…tag:www.windtaskforce.org,2022-03-18:4401701:Comment:2374372022-03-18T18:39:28.820ZWillem Posthttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profile/WillemPost942
<p>EXCERPT</p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>THE UKRAINE PLOT IS THICKENING WITH GERMANY AND FRANCE BARELY IN LOCKSTEP WITH US/UK-LED NATO</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in">https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in</a></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>German Energy Sector, ENERGIEWENDE, and Global Competitiveness</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Germany is currently…</p>
<p>EXCERPT</p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>THE UKRAINE PLOT IS THICKENING WITH GERMANY AND FRANCE BARELY IN LOCKSTEP WITH US/UK-LED NATO</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in">https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in</a></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>German Energy Sector, ENERGIEWENDE, and Global Competitiveness</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Germany is currently buying pipeline gas from Russia, under long-term contracts, at about $280 per 1000 cubic meter, or $7.93/million Btu. For comparison, US long-term pipeline gas prices for <strong>new</strong> contracts are about $5/million Btu</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Germany would be buying LNG gas, for many years, at spot prices of up to $1500 per 1000 cubic meter, or $42.47/million Btu</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-germany-via-yamal-europe-stop-gascade-data-shows-2021-12-21/">https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-germany-via-yamal-europe-stop-gascade-data-shows-2021-12-21/</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>There is no way Germany could shut down coal and nuclear plants, and have more wind and solar, as part of its multi-decade ENERGIEWENDE, without having <strong>much more</strong> <strong>low-cost</strong> pipeline gas from Russia</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The additional gas is planned to arrive, via the completed Nordstream 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea, from Russia to Germany.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Germany would have to buy very large quantities of LNG, at very high spot prices, from whatever unstable countries.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>That cost adder would totally ruin Germany's world competitiveness, and very large annual trade surpluses.</p>
<p>The ENERGIEWENDE, and fighting climate change, would have to be on the back burner for up to 10 years. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>A New Way to Make Solar and Wind More Attractive<span> </span></strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Just create a massive shortage of oil, gas and coal, such as by means of a war, and their spot prices will go up, and wind and solar, supported by expensive batteries, etc., will FINALLY become attractive, even without HUGE subsidies.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Germany is using the Ukraine war as an excuse to keep nuclear plants in service for at least 10 years, because it will take that long to partially replace Russian pipeline gas with LNG</p>
<p>The LNG will sell at astronomical spot prices of $40 to $50/million Btu, vs US Spot prices at $5/million Btu.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Natural Gas Price in Europe Smashes All-time High</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.rt.com/business/551028-european-gas-price-soars/">https://www.rt.com/business/551028-european-gas-price-soars/</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>European natural gas futures spiked above $2,200 per 1,000 cubic meters on Wednesday for the first time in market history. The escalating crisis between Russia and Ukraine has raised fears of supply shortages.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Because 1000 m3 contains 1000 x 35.315 ft3/m3 x 1000 Btu/ft3 = 35,315,000 Btu, the futures price becomes $2,200/35.315 million Btu = $62.30/million Btu, versus the US spot price at $4.5/million Btu</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The April gas futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands soared from around $1,500 to $2,226 per 1,000 cubic meters, or $213 per megawatt-hour (i.e., $213/3,412,000 Btu) in household terms, by 09:30 GMT, hitting an all-time high, data from the London ICE exchange shows.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The spike in prices follows sanctions placed on Russia by a number of Western states due to Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>A huge increase in applications (i.e., demand for gas futures) is raising the price by the minute, Kaushal Ramesh, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told Vesti.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>He said it had also been affected by fears of supply outages due to: 1) possible damage to infrastructure in Ukraine, through which the majority of Russian gas is delivered to Europe, and 2) the possibility of supply restrictions on Russian oil and gas.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>It looks like anything made in Europe will become very expensive, far more expensive than if that same product were made in the US.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The US/UK-led NATO, baiting Putin to start a war in Ukraine, is one way for the US to become more competitive in international markets, at the expense of Russia, and the EU, and everyone else.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The gas shortage condition would be in place for up to 10 years, because it would take that long to build up additional:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>- Gas production capacity, elsewhere in the world, to replace Russia’s 200 bcm/y of pipeline gas.</p>
<p>- LNG production plants and sending ports</p>
<p>- LNG carriers; average capacity 170,000 cubic meter of LNG</p>
<p>- LNG receiving ports and gasification plants</p>
<p>- Connections to existing onshore pipe systems, all while:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>1) EU inflation would be off-the-charts</p>
<p>2) EU exports would dwindle.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>NOTE: The above production and infrastructure build-ups would be <strong>in addition</strong> to what is required for the projected world-market growth of LNG</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="https://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/10219896273?profile=original" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/10219896273?profile=RESIZE_710x" class="align-full" width="500" height="333"/></a> </p> EXCERPT
THE UKRAINE PLOT IS…tag:www.windtaskforce.org,2022-03-18:4401701:Comment:2372892022-03-18T18:36:20.350ZWillem Posthttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profile/WillemPost942
<p>EXCERPT</p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>THE UKRAINE PLOT IS THICKENING WITH GERMANY AND FRANCE BARELY IN LOCKSTEP WITH US/UK-LED NATO</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in">https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in</a></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Brussels Career Bureaucrats</strong>: They likely have little hands-on experience in the energy sector. They…</p>
<p>EXCERPT</p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>THE UKRAINE PLOT IS THICKENING WITH GERMANY AND FRANCE BARELY IN LOCKSTEP WITH US/UK-LED NATO</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in">https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in</a></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Brussels Career Bureaucrats</strong>: They likely have little hands-on experience in the energy sector. They urged EU countries <strong>not</strong> to sign long-term gas supply contracts with Russia, because that would send the wrong “virtue signal” regarding “weaning the EU off fossil fuels”. Just google, if you find this incredible.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Their myopic decisions did not foresee EU spot prices for natural gas would become “volatile”, i.e., about 5 to 10 times the prices of Russian gas, under long-term contracts.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Naïve career bureaucrats likely thought Russia would supply enough gas to lower spot prices, but Russia did not.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Various folks, including Brussels bureaucrats did not take any blame for their stupidity.</p>
<p>Instead, they tried besmirching Russia, but the gas system operating data did not co-operate.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>However, Russia made sure to reliably provide pipeline gas, to clients with <strong>signed long-term</strong> contracts, as confirmed by Brussels, Germany, Turkey, etc. i.e., Russia was not to blame for high spot prices.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Russia has no contractual obligation to supply gas to the EU spot market.</p>
<p>Russia has no contractual obligation to fill the EU above- and belowground gas storage reservoirs</p>
<p> </p>
<p>This was known by Brussels career bureaucrats, prior to their myopic decisions.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The net result was Europe’s energy costs increased by at least $200 BILLION per year, which offsets any benefits from Europe’s international trade.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>NOTE</strong>: There is some consolation in all this. After all, there is the important “benefit” of strengthening the US/UK/EU long-term policy of squeezing/diminishing Russia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-eu-sanctions-russia-equal-suicide-cop">https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-eu-sanctions-russia-equal-suicide-cop</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>LNG Consumption in Europe</strong>: Historically, the EU has imported very minor quantities of LNG, because LNG prices are about 25% to 30% higher than pipeline gas bought from Russia, under long-term contracts. That will always be the case, due to cost differences of applicable technologies.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>The recent, cleverly-designed sanctions imposed on Russia did not include any restrictions on energy and materials flow from Russia to avoid additional price increases on world markets</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Russia will make money, which will partially offset the cost of fighting in Ukraine, and of the long-lasting sanctions</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The US/UK-led NATO will send more weapons and disguised trainers/mercenaries to Ukraine to increase the cost of fighting Ukraine</p>
<p>The end result will be more death and destruction lasting more than a few days.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Calculation of Additional LNG Carrier Loads</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Assume an average LNG carrier capacity at 170,000 m3, equivalent to 76,500 metric ton of LNG</p>
<p>In 2020, world LNG demand was 360 million metric ton, equivalent to 4,706 LNG carrier loads/y. See URL</p>
<p>The 200 bcm/y of pipeline gas supply from Russia is equivalent to 1903 LNG carrier loads/y</p>
<p> </p>
<p>There would need to be an enormous, <strong>worldwide </strong>increase in LNG carrier loads of about (4706 + 1903)/4706 = 40.4%, if Russian gas to the EU were stopped. See table</p>
<p> </p>
<p>There would be a gigantic, additional strain on the world’s LNG system, which would send spot prices to unprecedented levels for many years.</p>
<p>At present, Europe lacks the capacity to receive and gasify that many carrier loads.</p>
<p>At present, there is a significant shortage of large-capacity LNG carriers</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>NOTE</strong>:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/lng-shipping-by-numbers-36027">https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/lng-shipping-by-numbers-36027</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng/lng-outlook-2021.html#iframe=L3dlYmFwcHMvTE5HX091dGxvb2svMjAyMS8">https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng/lng-outlook-2021.html#iframe=L3dlYmFwcHMvTE5HX091dGxvb2svMjAyMS8</a></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<table>
<tbody><tr><td><p><strong>Russian gas supply</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>billion m3/y</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>200</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Carrier load, LNG</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>m3</p>
</td>
<td><p>170000</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>gal/m3, conversion factor</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td></td>
<td><p>264.172</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Carrier load, LNG</p>
</td>
<td><p>170000 x 264.172</p>
</td>
<td><p>gal</p>
</td>
<td><p>44909240</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>gal LNG/million Btu</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td></td>
<td><p>12.1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Carrier load</p>
</td>
<td><p>449092240 x (10^6/12.1)</p>
</td>
<td><p>million Btu</p>
</td>
<td><p>3711507</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Btu/cf, gas</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td></td>
<td><p>1000</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>cf/m3, conversion factor</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td></td>
<td><p>35.315</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Btu/m3, gas</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td></td>
<td><p>35315</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Carrier load</p>
</td>
<td><p>3711507 x 10^6/35315</p>
</td>
<td><p>million m3</p>
</td>
<td><p>105</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>Carrier load</p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>billion m3</p>
</td>
<td><p>0.105</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p><strong>Carrier loads/y</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>200 bcm/y/0.105</strong></p>
</td>
<td></td>
<td><p><strong>1903</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p><strong>Carrier loads/week</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>38</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table> ARREST THE LIARS IN THE MEDIA…tag:www.windtaskforce.org,2022-03-18:4401701:Comment:2374362022-03-18T16:37:24.530ZThinklike A. Mountainhttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profile/ThinklikeAMountain
<p><strong>ARREST THE LIARS IN THE MEDIA</strong><br/> <a href="https://thebluestateconservative.com/2022/03/18/one-twitter-user-created-a-must-read-thread-of-the-hunter-biden-laptop-saga/One" target="_blank">https://thebluestateconservative.com/2022/03/18/one-twitter-user-created-a-must-read-thread-of-the-hunter-biden-laptop-saga/One</a> Twitter User Created A Must-Read Thread Of The Hunter Biden laptop Saga</p>
<p><strong>ARREST THE LIARS IN THE MEDIA</strong><br/> <a href="https://thebluestateconservative.com/2022/03/18/one-twitter-user-created-a-must-read-thread-of-the-hunter-biden-laptop-saga/One" target="_blank">https://thebluestateconservative.com/2022/03/18/one-twitter-user-created-a-must-read-thread-of-the-hunter-biden-laptop-saga/One</a> Twitter User Created A Must-Read Thread Of The Hunter Biden laptop Saga</p> Elections have consequences.…tag:www.windtaskforce.org,2022-03-18:4401701:Comment:2372882022-03-18T16:33:23.568ZThinklike A. Mountainhttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profile/ThinklikeAMountain
<p><strong>Elections have consequences. Stolen elections have grave consequences.</strong><br/> Biden Energy Secretary Granholm Says War In Ukraine Is Chance To Transistion To Green Energy (VIDEO)<br/> <a href="https://americanlookout.com/biden-energy-secretary-granholm-says-war-in-ukraine-is-chance-to-transistion-to-green-energy-video/" target="_blank">https://americanlookout.com/biden-energy-secretary-granholm-says-war-in-ukraine-is-chance-to-transistion-to-green-energy-video/</a></p>
<p><strong>Elections have consequences. Stolen elections have grave consequences.</strong><br/> Biden Energy Secretary Granholm Says War In Ukraine Is Chance To Transistion To Green Energy (VIDEO)<br/> <a href="https://americanlookout.com/biden-energy-secretary-granholm-says-war-in-ukraine-is-chance-to-transistion-to-green-energy-video/" target="_blank">https://americanlookout.com/biden-energy-secretary-granholm-says-war-in-ukraine-is-chance-to-transistion-to-green-energy-video/</a></p> Start Walking: International…tag:www.windtaskforce.org,2022-03-18:4401701:Comment:2374342022-03-18T16:29:58.942ZThinklike A. Mountainhttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profile/ThinklikeAMountain
<p><strong>Start Walking: International Energy Agency Calls for Urgent Restrictions on Domestic Oil Supplies</strong><br/> <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/03/18/start-walking-international-energy-agency-calls-for-urgent-restrictions-on-domestic-oil-supplies/" target="_blank">https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/03/18/start-walking-international-energy-agency-calls-for-urgent-restrictions-on-domestic-oil-supplies/</a></p>
<p><strong>Start Walking: International Energy Agency Calls for Urgent Restrictions on Domestic Oil Supplies</strong><br/> <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/03/18/start-walking-international-energy-agency-calls-for-urgent-restrictions-on-domestic-oil-supplies/" target="_blank">https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/03/18/start-walking-international-energy-agency-calls-for-urgent-restrictions-on-domestic-oil-supplies/</a></p> The European left understandi…tag:www.windtaskforce.org,2022-03-18:4401701:Comment:2371532022-03-18T15:31:13.528ZWillem Posthttps://www.windtaskforce.org/profile/WillemPost942
<p>The European left understanding about fossil fuels?</p>
<p></p>
<p>They did, do not now, and will never in the future, understand about fossil fuels, because they have not made the effort to learn about the plethora of wonders that became possible with fossil fuels, which would be enormously more difficult and expensive to achieve with the cripples called wind, solar and hydro</p>
<p>The European left understanding about fossil fuels?</p>
<p></p>
<p>They did, do not now, and will never in the future, understand about fossil fuels, because they have not made the effort to learn about the plethora of wonders that became possible with fossil fuels, which would be enormously more difficult and expensive to achieve with the cripples called wind, solar and hydro</p>