New facts about rigging data for excessive wind energy Tax credit's part 3

Comment

Comment by Kathy Sherman on March 29, 2015 at 12:08pm

Frank,
I will send links to Ontario's wind facility map if you e-mail me.
Meanwhile I am just blown away by NREL/AWS True power's Nov. '14 wind maps for hub heights of 124 m, and 'near future' 140 m. Now everyone can have a looming turbine, not just ridgetops and shorelines, and Maine Audubon's vision can be realized. The only problem is that the effects of wind shear, vear and turbulence on power (and noise) are not factored in. We don't really know what assumptions were made about wind shear, but I think their projections may bear on the capacity issue Jim raised - The land area with 30% capacity for turbines at 110 m hub with 2014 technology is approx double that at 80m with 2008 technology, and the land area available for 30-48% capacity with that old technology (e.g. Iowa) drops steeply. With the 110 m tower, the amount of land available for which they claim 40% capacity triples! And they claim that almost as much land is available that could get 55% capacity with today's turbines as met the criteria for 'economic viability' of 30% previously. Of course that land is probably already built out and using older technology in the rush to secure PTC.
So the original point would be, what is the 'ground truth'.
These maps are very, very frightening.

On Ontario, what is shown may not reflect export of wind generation to the U.S. when it is very windy at a loss.

Comment by Frank J. Heller, MPA on March 27, 2015 at 2:39pm

Almost minute by minute fluctuations in output are critical variables, since power grid operators are having trouble--$$$ in absorbing surges and filling drops with on demand sources.  The New England grid is unable to forecast wind energy; and probably can't if the Ontario data is any indication....hydro, gas, biomass and nuclear are demand actuated and far more predictable. 

The electric bills for wind turbines are not that important, perhaps more symbolic; but they can be gotten. 

Kathy, see if you can find any more comparable wind farms in Ontario I can match up?

Does anyone have a data base of Maine wind farms, with a def. for each turbine?

Comment by Jim Wiegand on March 27, 2015 at 1:38pm

I have seen charts where the wind output drops by 2/3 for a month or two in CA each year. If you find important charts or good references, make sure you copy them so they do not disappear. I have had this happen. Also keep in mind that you still do not know the electricity flowing into and used by these wind farms. They have special arrangements with the utilities and this is very critical info. It might take a Court order to get it.

Comment by Kathy Sherman on March 27, 2015 at 1:20pm

I am glad you are doing this. I think someone from Ontario did do some seasonal analyses. As indicated, I have been most interested in the within day variance because if it goes from 100 to 0 in 60 minutes, i.e., is not forecastable, its pretty useless. I think that my interest was concentrated around the time I learned of market-timing rule changes to accomodate wind generation in ISO-NE. I learned about it on wikipedia before that when I was looking into terrain, etc. and surrounding land use in Ontario and elsewhere. Ontario wind is mostly flat farmland but coastal (Great Lakes) but Wolfe Island is quite unpredictable - that's where I wondered about relationship to neighbor impacts. I know they had a prolonged shutdown, but I wondered about variations in capacity also. I thought that some might be contracted, or sold outside of the province, or the grid operator may constrain, the price not look sufficient???

Comment by Frank J. Heller, MPA on March 27, 2015 at 12:36pm

Kathy, WHAT AN INCREDIBLE FIND!

I am just digging into the details for 25 wind farms now, amazing hourly detail on output vs. capacity; with hourly time sensitive graphs.  Data is produced daily and monthly. I think we can even match an Ontario wind farm to a comparable one in Maine by location on a wind map, and perhaps even by turbine type .

For example, the AMARANTH farm has a monthly output range from 0 MW to 185 MW; and a daily capability ranging from 26 to 96 MW. The Month's (Feb 24th to March 26th) average Capability was 67.3 MW or roughly 36% of capability. Winter winds are always high; so lets take a summer view.

On Jul. 21st, 2014, the max. capability was 9 MW; the output was 5 MW; on July 29th the high point was a peak of  109 MW of Capability and only 55 MW of output. The summer and fall are def. low points in output with an average capability of 67.3 from Jul. 2013 to Sep. 2013.  Monthly MWh were 43,422 and monthly average earnings were $21.00/MWh. 

I don't understand the fluctuations between capability; but the results are a massive fall off between summer and winter output.

BUT NOW WE HAVE REAL TIME DATA TO WORK WITH, all we need is comparability between Ontario's wind farms and those in Maine, so for research purposes, we need definitional  clarity. Here are their basic terms. BTW. this is a fantastic graph and data set to work with, changes are instant.

Output    Quantity of average power in MW (or total energy in MWh) output by the generator during that last reported hour. Output readings are always positive, therefore a generator reading 0MW may in fact be a net consumer of power during that period. Similarly, a generator embedded within an industrial load that is used to displace load will only report its net output (when positive). The source data for a generator Output is also based on telemetry, which is provided in near real-time but is less accurate than revenue meter data. 

"Planned Capability Factor is the ratio of energy that could have been delivered by a generating station with pre-approved planned unit limitations in effect, to the energy that could have been delivered if the station had operated continuously at the Maximum Continuous Rating, over the same period of time.

Total Capability Factor is the ratio of energy that could have been delivered by a generating station with pre-approved planned and forced unit limitations in effect, to the energy that could have been delivered if the station had operated continuously at the Maximum Continuous Rating, over the same period of time.

Actual Energy Production is the amount of energy a generating station produced during the month, expressed in megawatt-hours (MWh).

Actual Production Factor is the ratio of energy that was produced by a generating station, to the energy, over the same period of time, that could have been delivered if the station had operated continuously at the Maximum Continuous Rating.

 

Comment by Jim Wiegand on March 27, 2015 at 12:07pm

As far as being a Whistleblower do not hold your breath. This program is an illusion created for suckers.                                                                                                                                         Years ago I submitted a report about the bogus yearly golden eagle surveys being conducted by WEST INC.  Every dime of these non-scientific surveys was a waste of tax dollars. From what I could see, the only purpose for these surveys was to build a bogus eagle population data base that would help the wind industry expand. West Inc has been paid millions.

 

 I never heard back.

 

 

You have to realize that we do not live in a system with check and balances. We live in a system primarily run by a club of thieves. This green fraud goes deep that these guys will look over the all evidence presented and then rewrite history. You will see accounting errors, missing documents, people taking the fifth, people that can't remember, new documents will miraculously appear and so on. Also keep in mind that that the utility companies are intertwined financially with these green thieves.

 

 Here is a link http://www.fedspending.org/ to find contracts for these yearly bogus surveys conducted by West Inc. Note the agency purchasing these bogus contracts ............The same people withholding all the information pertaining to the 31,000 eagle carcasses sent to the Denver Repository since 1997.

Contracts to Contractor(s) "WESTERN ECOSYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY INC"
(FY 2011)

Expanded Detail on Individual Transactions for FY 2011

Award #1

 

Amounts

 

Dollars Obligated	$315,125
Current Contract Value	$315,125
Ultimate Contract Value	$315,125

 

Purchaser Information

 

Major Agency	Dept. of the Interior
Modified Contracting Agency	1448: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Contracting Agency	U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Contracting Office	00002
Major Funding Agency	Dept. of the Interior
Modified Funding Agency	1448: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Program / Funding Agency	U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Program / Funding Office	00002
Funded by Foreign Government or International Org.	Not Applicable
Agency Within TAS	14
Account Within TAS	1611

 

		Contract Description	GOLDEN EAGLE SURVEY

Comment by Gary Campbell on March 27, 2015 at 10:14am

Anyone can blow the whistle and profit from it!

If anyone can provide solid documentation if an agency ,corporation or individual cheating the Federal govt out of money, he can profit from sharing it. Whistleblowers are protected and they will receive a percent of any funds reclaimed as a result of the documentation they provide. The awards in the past have been very substantial.

The people to contact are America's Watchdod:

M Thomas Martin, President
Americas Watchdog
5614 Connecticut Ave NW #138
Washington, DC 20015-2604
P-866-714-6466
http://AmericasWatchdog.Com

Your initial contact is confidential and if they think your information could lead to the recovery of funds, they will take it from there.

Comment by Jim Wiegand on March 27, 2015 at 12:19am

If the public knew the actual outputs of the projects their golden goose would be dead.

Comment by Kathy Sherman on March 26, 2015 at 9:37pm

Penny,
I think that the closest to real-time data for wind generation comes from Ontario - hourly data for all classes of generator and by facility
https://www.sygration.com/gendata/today.html
Right now wind is way down (nameplate capacity is by clicking a button up top) and notice the very abrupt changes from hour to hour. I don't know if anyone has calculated averages by time of day within month or something like that. The prior day is available too. All data is available with a login that requires a corporate type address.
The real-time production by sector on ISO-NE is perhaps the closest since we know most of it is coming from Maine. Bershire Wind on Brodie Mtn is claiming 40% capacity annual and I think Iberdola is getting similar before they address noise violations. In what has been reported here, only Mars Hill was getting close to that. It is important not just because of the PTC ripoff, which is absolutely outrageous, but because I think ISO-NE was using something like 33% capacity for land-based wind in planning how to offset 8000 MW of retirements.

Note also more than 12,000 MW nuclear and tons of hydro to balance the grid in Ontario.

It seems that more and more is proprietary in New England. I can't even find REC info anymore, except the amazing price fluctuations.

Comment by Penny Gray on March 26, 2015 at 6:33pm

The fact that the wind industry doesn't brag about their power production here in Maine speaks loudly to the fact there is nothing to brag about.  They hide turbine fires, calling them oil spills, won't divulge production figures and certainly won't produce power consumption figures, which must be considerable.  So, backing the consumption figures out of the production figures, it seems to me the true measure of exaggeration could be staggering.  How do we get the real figures when it's deemed "proprietary" information?

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